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The latest proposal to abolish jury trials for likely sentences of under 3 years, seems to create some confusion, because what does likely actually mean? There are many offences for which the sentencing range is between 2 and 5 years. Distribution of Cat A images for example.
The starting point in the sentencing guidelines is 3 years. The maximum sentence is 5 years, but the sentencing range is from 2 years to 5 years. So what is the likely sentence? In practice, offences of this kind tend to receive a sentence of 2 years suspended in most cases. Statistically then, the most likely sentence is one of 2 years, despite the starting point being 3 years. So could these offences still go to a jury?
Arguably, all sexual offences should go to a jury, because the consequences of being found guilty are so serious, even for a possession charge. The impact, thanks to the Google effect, is potentially lifelong.
Then there are the other consequences, such as a potential 10 year SHPO. That is not even being taken into account, in deciding whether to allow someone a jury trial.
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